Research & Insights

The subscription economy shakeout

George Talboys

Senior Consultant

Subscriptions were once the ultimate convenience - seamless access to entertainment, services, and products without the hassle of ownership. But today, many consumers are falling out of love with subscriptions.

What once felt effortless now feels like clutter. Our poll found that 72% want to cancel subscriptions due to a lack of value for money. Today, we want to explore a deeper issue: trust.

In this thought-piece, we explore how trust shapes the subscription experience. We’ll share how design-led journeys can improve retention and renewal rates - and look ahead to what’s next for the future of subscriptions.

Subscription models and the risks they carry

Over the past decade, different subscription strategies have shaped how consumers think about these services.

From free trials and discounted intro periods to loyalty bundles and flexible pause plans, customers have become savvy about what each model offers. But when expectations aren’t met, trust erodes and churn accelerates.

Some models naturally build loyalty, while others risk alienating customers if they’re not designed with care:

Model typeCustomer perceptionRisk to trustExample brands
Free trial –> auto-renew. Low barrier to entry. Erodes trust through hidden or unclear terms. Potential for accidental renewal.Spotify: 3-month free trial hooks users but relies on clear comms to avoid feeling misleading.
Discounted intro period. Exciting at first, feels like a good deal. Churn spikes when full price kicks in, especially if value is not clear.Pret coffee subscription: £15/month intro offer doubled to £30, sparking customer frustration.
Loyalty bundle / perks. Builds value over time. Sets expectations for ongoing added value.Complex rules can confuse or frustrate customers. Amazon Prime: combines delivery, video, and music perks to lock in loyalty.
Pause / flexible plans. Empowers customer choice. Sets expectations for control and fairness.Low risk if executed well, but confusing UX can create frustration.Disney+: lets users pause during non-viewing periods to reduce churn.

When subscription journeys lack transparency, customers feel trapped.

Unclear terms, clunky cancellation flows, and services that overpromise and underdeliver all chip away at trust, raising consumer suspicion across all industries.

And the stakes are high: HelloFresh was recently fined $7m for making it unnecessarily difficult for users to unsubscribe.

Design responses: rebuilding trust through journeys

Strong subscription journeys are built on trust, not pressure. Clear onboarding sets expectations, small nudges sustain engagement and respectful cancellations protect loyalty. When value is proven first, upsell feels natural and customers are more likely to return.

1. Onboarding that's clear and sets expectations

Too many brands oversell at signup, leading to disappointment later.

Good design solves these onboarding pitfalls by making value visible fast. Clear, honest sign-up flows set the right expectations from the start, while streamlined journeys remove unnecessary friction. Guided first steps help customers quickly unlock a “win”, building confidence and momentum. By combining clarity, simplicity, and early proof of value, design turns a risky first impression into the foundation for lasting loyalty.

2. Micromoments of engagement

Design strengthens everyday engagement by surfacing the right content or features at the right time, creating a rhythm of value that keeps customers active. It shapes moments of delight - from celebrating milestones to surfacing personalised recommendations - which build emotional loyalty. In every stage beyond sign-up, design balances clarity, timing, and empathy to turn fleeting interactions into lasting relationships.

- Duolingo keeps learners motivated through streaks and encouraging notifications.
- Netflix recommends shows at just the right moment to pull people back in.

3. Respectful exits and re-entry points

Designing respectful exits and re-entry points means prioritising clarity, control and transparency. Instead of relying on dark patterns or obstructive flows, good design makes cancellation straightforward, language unambiguous and choices visible. This not only preserves trust in the moment but also keeps the door open for return. By treating offboarding as carefully as onboarding, design turns a potential point of frustration into an experience that protects the brand and increases the likelihood of future re-engagement.

4. Upsell through earned trust, not pressure

Designing effective upsell moments starts with trust. When the core service has clearly delivered on its promise, design can surface upgrade opportunities at the right time; after a milestone, a positive outcome or a meaningful interaction.

By embedding offers seamlessly into the journey, they feel like a natural extension of the experience rather than an interruption. Done well, design ensures upsell is relevant, timely and value-led, avoiding the mistrust that comes from pushing too soon or in the wrong context.

Diagnosing where the problem stems from

The symptoms of a broken subscription journey are easy to spot - high cancellations, low engagement, flat renewals. But the root causes are often buried in the experience itself.

1. Onboarding leakage

What to check:
- What percentage of users start the sign-up flow but don't complete it?
- Where exactly are they dropping off?
- Does the pricing or value proposition cause hesitation?

Benchmark: Healthy onboarding completion rates are 50-60%, with top performers reaching 70%. If less than 50% of users complete the journey, there's likely friction in your flow.

Why it matters: Friction at signup immediate mistrust. When expectations aren't clear - especially around price - drop-offs soar and long-term loyalty never has a chance to form.

2. Silent churn

What to check:
- What percentage of users start the sign-up flow but don't complete it?
- Where exactly are they dropping off?
- Does the pricing or value proposition cause hesitation?

Benchmark: Healthy onboarding completion rates are 50-60%, with top performers reaching 70%. If less than 50% of users complete the journey, there's likely friction in your flow.

Why it matters: Friction at signup immediate mistrust. When expectations aren't clear - especially around price - drop-offs soar and long-term loyalty never has a chance to form.

3. Exit friction

What to check:
- How many steps does it take to cancel?
- Are buttons or options buried or unclear?
- Try cancelling your own product - how does it feel?

Benchmark: Cancellations should be as easy as sign-ups, ideally in one or two steps maximum. The US Federal Trade Commission's "Click to cancel" rule now mandates that subscription cancellations must be straight forward and free of hidden hurdles.

Why it matters: Even small amounts of friction can destroy trust. A cancellation flow that's clear and respectful sends a powerful signal: "This brand values my autonomy. I might come back."

What's next: designing the future of subscriptions

Subscriptions have always evolved in cycles. Free trials, bundles, loyalty perks - each wave starts with delight, then tips into fatigue as customer expectations shift. We're now at a turning point.

Regulations could rise

Governments will push back against dark patterns and unclear terms - take the HelloFresh fine of $7m as an example. Brands that lead on transparency now will stay ahead of the curve.

Flexible, modular plans

Customers will expect to pause, swap, or downgrade subscriptions rather than cancel outright. They’ll want subscriptions that are more bespoke to their needs, not a one-size-fits-all subscription.

Personalisation powered by AI

Predictive design will enable smarter, more relevant micromoments, helping brands prevent churn without manipulation.

Trust as a differentiator

As subscription clutter increases, trust itself becomes a feature customers actively seek out. Offering customers transparency, autonomy, and delivering on the promises you make will ensure you stand out.

Why act now?

The brands that thrive in this next wave won’t just respond to change - they’ll set the standard. By redesigning journeys today, you build the loyalty and resilience your business will need tomorrow.

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